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updated October. 2011
HOUSE
242 Republicans
192 Democrats
1 vacancy
Sixty-three seats changed parties in 2010, giving the Republicans a 24-seat majority. Democrats will need to net 25 seats in 2012 to get back to the barest majority (218). This could prove even more difficult than it has been in the past. The mid-term elections gave Republicans control of many state legislatures, allowing them to dominate the upcoming redistricting process. Many districts will be altered substantially, especially in states losing population: Illinois, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania. The Democratic party is likely to lose at least 11 seats because of redistricting and retirements. In Michigan, California and possibly Pennsylvania, redistricting has put two Democratic incumbents in the same district. In states where Republicans control the new district maps, some “safe” Democrats are now in GOP districts. Only in Illinois, where Democrats control both houses of the legislature, does redistricting mean that Democrats could increase the numbers in their delegation. In the states losing seats, both parties appear to lose equally. In the states gaining seats, Republicans are likely to come out on top. Three of the four new Texas seats are likely Republican as are new seats in Utah, South Carolina and Georgia. The nonpartisan redistricting commission in Arizona means that seat could be drawn either way. Florida has a Republican legislature and a Republican governor, they are constrained by a new “fair districts” state constitutional amendment. In Nevada and Washington, Democrats are expected to pick up the new seats.The first priority for Republicans will be to shore up the 85 GOP freshmen, those who defeated incumbent Democrats and those who won open seats in districts are marginally favorable to Republicans.
SENATE
51 Democrats
47 Republicans
2 Independents (who caucus with the Democrats)
For the GOP to win the majority, they need a net gain of 4 seats. Democrats have to defend 23 seats, Republicans only 10. The JAC-supported Democrats are: Dianne Feinstein (CA), Tom Carper (DE), Ben Cardin (MD), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Amy Klobuchar (MN), Bob Menendez (NJ), Sheldon Whitehouse (RI), Debbie Stabenow (MI), Jon Tester (MT), Maria Cantwell (WA), Bill Nelson (FL), Claire McCaskill (MO) and Sherrod Brown (OH). The JAC-supported Republican is Olympia Snowe (R-ME), the lone pro-choice incumbent Republican running in 2012.
Retirements have been announced by Kent Conrad (D-ND), Joe Lieberman (D-CT), Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), Daniel Akaka (D-HI), Jim Webb (D-VA) Jeff Bingaman (D-NM),and Herb Kohl (D-WI). It is possible that more retirements will occur.
SENATE RACES SUMMARY
The current Senate lineup is 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, 2 Independents. Twenty-three (23) Democratic seats are up (includes Sen. Joe Lieberman, Independent from Connecticut), 10 Republican seats. Most filing deadlines and primary dates are still to be determined
ARIZONA
This is an OPEN seat. GOP Sen. Jon Kyl is retiring. The demographics strongly favor Republicans. Rep. Jeff Flake and real estate developer Wil Cardon have declared. Former st. party chair Don Bivens is the only declared Democrat at this time.
CALIFORNIA
Dem. Sen. Dianne Feinstein is running for a 5th term. She was elected in 2006 with 59% of the vote. Sen. Feinstein will be 78 when she runs in 2012 but has given no indication that she plans to retire. However, a former campaign consultant embezzled approximately $5 million in campaign funds and the Senator recently contributed $5 million of her own money to cover the loss. There are no declared Republican challengers and Feinstein starts out with a strong advantage.
CONNECTICUT
This is an OPEN seat. Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman is retiring. Except for the Iraq war, Sen. Lieberman has almost always caucused and voted with Democrats. There will be contested primaries for both parties. Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz, Rep. Chris Murphy and st. Rep. William Tong are vying for the Democratic nomination. Murphy is leading the other two at this time. Former GOP Rep. Chris Shays, ’10 Senate nominee Linda McMahon, attorney Brian Hill and Vernon Mayor Jason McCoy have announced for the GOP nomination. The race is between Shays and McMahon and current polls show McMahon way out in front. Shays was defeated in 2008 after having served for 11 terms. He was the last of the “moderate” northeastern Republicans to be defeated. McMahon lost to now Sen. Richard Blumenthal in 2010 55%-45%. Connecticut falls into the “Blue” state category, favoring Democrats, but it has a Republican Governor now and has had Republican Senators in the past, all from the moderate wing of the Party. This race could be a “toss-up” until November.
DELAWARE
Dem. Sen. Tom Carper is running for his second term. He won in 2006 with 67%. Carper has been both the state’s governor and the state’s at-large representative. There is no declared opponent and the Senator looks safe for re-election.
FLORIDA
Dem. Sen. Bill Nelson was first elected in 2000 and won his second term in 2006 with 60%. He has been an excellent vote on JAC’s issues. There will be a contested primary on the GOP side. Currently there are three declared candidates: George LeMieux, appointed by Gov. Charlie Crist to fill the unexpired term of GOP Sen. Mel Martinez. LeMieux chose not to run in 2010, but is challenging Bill Nelson in 2012; St. House Majority Leader Adam Hasner; former Ruth Chris CEO and ’10 Florida 24 candidate Craig Miller. Hasner has linked himself to freshman GOP Sen. Marco Rubio and should get the Tea Party vote.
HAWAII
This is an OPEN seat. Dem. Sen. Daniel Akaka is retiring. There will be a contested Democratic primary between former U.S. Rep. Ed Case and current U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono. Case challenged Akaka in 2006 and lost and ran for Hawaii’s 1st district House seat in 2010 and lost. Gov. Linda Lingle, the only Republican who could make this a race, has decided to run.
INDIANA
Six-term GOP Sen. Richard Lugar is facing a primary challenge from st. Treasurer Richard Mourdock, and the polls show Mourdock leading. The only declared Democrat is Rep. Joe Donnelly. Mourdock will get the Tea Party vote but could have trouble in the general. If Lugar wins the primary, Donnelly doesn’t have a chance.
MAINE
GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe is running for her 4th term. She will face primary challenges from former Lisbon Falls Selectman Scott D’Amboise and Tea Party activist Andrew Ian Dodge. There are no Democratic candidates at this time. Snowe is a Northeastern Republican, fiscally conservative and socially moderate. She is pro-choice. If for some reason, one of the GOP right wing challengers looks like a primary winner, Democrats will scramble to find a strong candidate. If Snowe wins the primary, which she is expected to do, the seat is hers for another six years.
MARYLAND
Dem. Sen. Ben Cardin is running for his second term. He should not have difficulty keeping this seat, although in 2012, anything could happen. He does have a primary challenger in st. Sen. Anthony Muse and one Republican, former Secret Service agent Daniel Bongino, has declared.
MASSACHUSETTS
This could be one of the most interesting, and possibly expensive, races of the cycle. GOP Sen. Scott Brown is running for his first full term. He won a special election to fill the unexpired term of Dem. Sen. Ted Kennedy. There are six declared Democratic candidates: Immigration attorney Marisa DeFranco, ’10 Sen. candidate Alan Khazei, Newton Mayor Setti Warren, engineer Herb Robinson, st. Rep. Thomas Conroy and former consumer protection agency advisor Elizabeth Warren. Warren only recently entered the race, but has become the frontrunner. She is the top-tier candidate that the DSCC wanted to recruit.
MICHIGAN
Dem. Sen. Debbie Stabenow is running for her 3rd term. JAC supported Sen. Stabenow when she was in the House and has been a supporter in both her previous Senate races. She has been a perfect vote on JAC’s issues and especially vocal on women’s issues. She will not have a primary challenge. There will be a contested GOP primary and there are currently five declared candidates: former U.S. Rep. and ’10 Gov. candidate Peter Hoekstra, MI Family Forum president Randy Hekman, former American Family Assoc. President Gary Glenn, Cornerstone Schools co-founder Clark Durant, and businessman Chuck Marino. Hoekstra is the frontrunner in this race, but Durant raised $750,000 in the third quarter, making him a formidable opponent.
MINNESOTA
First-term Dem. Sen. Amy Klobuchar has very high approval ratings and should not have a difficult race. But, again, nothing can be taken for granted in a cycle where the majority of Americans are angry and have low opinions of the President and Congress. There are three declared GOP candidates: ’10 Sec. of State nominee Dan Severson, Tea Party Activist Thomas Bach, at St. Bonifacius councilor Joe Arwood. Republicans do not consider this a “pick-up” opportunity.
MISSISSIPPI
GOP Sen. Roger Wicker won in 2006 with 55% and is considered safe for re-election.
MISSOURI
First-term Dem. Sen. Claire McCaskill is one of the GOP’s top targets and is thought to be one of the most vulnerable Democratic senators. Missouri Is truly a swing state that went for McCain in 2008 and elected conservative Republican Roy Blunt to the other Senate seat in 2010. McCaskill won with barely 50% in 2006. She will face the winner of a three way Republican primary between former st. Treasurer Sarah Steelman, U.S. Rep. Todd Akin, and businessman John Brunner. Brunner did not enter the race until the last week in September and was on television the next day. He has the ability to self-fund his bid.
MONTANA
First-term Dem. Sen. Jon Tester is another GOP target. He will face GOP U.S. Rep. Dennis Rehberg, the at-large representative for Montana. Rehberg has been in Congress for 12 years, so his name ID is as good, if not better, than Tester’s. Tester has been excellent on JAC’s issues. Rehberg is anti-choice and negative on separation.
NEBRASKA
Dem. Sen. Ben Nelson is running for his 3rd term in the Senate after having served as the state’s Governor. JAC never supported Nelson as he is a conservative, anti-choice Senator, although he has voted for the Democratic Majority leader. Republicans see this as an excellent “pick-up” opportunity. There are six declared candidates for the GOP nomination:Attorney General Jon Bruning, ’08 Sen. candidate Pat Flynn, st. Treasurer and former Attorney General Don Sternberg, ’08 candidate Larry Zimmer, perennial candidate Spencer Zimmerman, and st. Sen. Deb Fisher.
NEVADA
GOP Sen. Dean Heller was appointed by the Republican Governor to fill the remainder of GOP Sen. John Ensign’s term. Ensign resigned earlier this year. Dem. Rep.Shelley Berkley, a JAC member, had declared for this seat even before Ensign resigned. She has been a perfect vote on JAC’s issues during her tenure in the House and is visible and vocal on any issue concerning Israel. She is always one of the first to initiate a letter or legislation promoting Israel and against its delegitimization. Heller has been a good vote on Israel, but 100% negative on Choice and Separation.
NEW JERSEY
Dem. Sen. Robert Menendez is running for his 3rd term. He was previously in the House and also served as the Senate head of the DSCC. This is a Democratic seat and should remain in the column. Currently, he has no Republican challengers.
NEW MEXICO
This is an OPEN seat. Dem. Sen. Jeff Bingaman is retiring. There will be contested primaries for both party’s nominations. Three Democrats are declared: U.S. Rep. Martin Heinrich, st. Auditor Hector Balderas and activist Andres Valdez. The race is between Heinrich and Balderas and is too close to call a frontrunner. On the GOP side, there are four declared candidates: businessman Bill English, former U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson, businessman and former NM-02 candidate Greg Sowards and Lt. Gov. John Sanchez. That race is between Wilson and Sanchez. Both the Democratic and the GOP leaders are top-tier candidates. This race will be a toss-up until election day.
NEW YORK
Dem. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is running for her first full term. She was appointed to fill Sec. of State Hillary Rodham Clinton’s seat and then ran for the two-year term remaining. Her approval rating is high and there is only one declared GOP candidate who shouldn’t give her any trouble – Nassau Cty. Comptroller George Maragos. But, it is very early in the cycle, and there will undoubtedly be other GOP candidates before the filing deadline.
NORTH DAKOTA
This is an OPEN seat. Four-term incumbent Democrat Kent Conrad is not running in 2012. No Democrats have announced their candidacy, but many are mulling a bid. Conrad’s retirement already makes this a tough seat for Democrats to hold in 2012 because of the state’s GOP leanings. But without a solid candidate, the party seems doomed to hand over the seat to the GOP. U.S GOP. Rep. Rick Berg has announced his candidacy. Berg is a first term Congressman.
OHIO
First-term incumbent Dem. Sen. Sherrod Brown has announced his reelection intent. Former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin and State Treasurer Josh Mandel are among the Republicans challenging Brown. Mandel has received backing from many in the Jewish community although he is very right wing on social issues. With the current political climate and Ohio’s difficult economy, this will be a hard race. Brown currently leads in the polls.
PENNSYLVANIA
Sen. Bob Casey Jr is running for a second term after defeating incumbent GOP Senator Rick Santorum in 2006. Casey is the son of former popular governor, Bob Casey. He faces a Tea Party Democrat in the primary. Brian Kelly is a Democrat in name only as he is against abortion in all instances, immigration, voting rights for welfare recipients and other such policies. On the Republican side, 6 candidates have announced, including a former Santorum staffer, a Tea Party activist, and a US Army veteran.
RHODE ISLAND
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) is running for reelection after beating now Governor Lincoln Chaffee in the 2006 senate race. He will face Barry Hinckley, a software executive and tea party activist, unless other Republicans enter the fray. Whitehouse should be safe.
TENNESSEE
Sen. Bob Corker (R) is running for his second term after narrowly defeating former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. in 2006. Zack Poskevich, a technology consultant has announced his candidacy. Poskevich’s views are far right. He believes that rights are accorded by the Creator and not by the Constitution. He is also associated with the Tea Party. There are no declared Democrats. Corker should not have difficult keeping this seat
TEXAS
This is an OPEN seat. Kay Bailey Hutchison has announced her retirement from the Senate after serving 3 terms. The Republican field is very large with announced candidates Ted Cruz, former Solicitor General, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Railroad Commissioner, Tom Leppert, Dallas Mayor and Andrew Castanuela, USAF vet, among others. On the Democratic side, Ricardo Sanchez, Ret. Lt General is entering the race after serving in the Armed Services for 33 years. Sanchez is a good candidate but Texas is a Republican state.
UTAH
Six-term Senator Orrin Hatch will be running for a 7th term as he approaches his 78th birthday. Although many in the Utah Republican party feel that Hatch is too moderate, this former Senate Judiciary Committee Chair is finally getting financial support from his party. There are many rumored to be challenging him from the right. Congressman Jason Chaffetz, tea party fave, recently declined to run for against Hatch. US Rep Jim Matheson (D), son of Utah’s last Democratic governor, is considering a run on the Democratic side. He is deciding between running for his Congressional seat after redistricting and running for statewide office.
VERMONT
Sen. Bernie Sanders, a one-term incumbent, is an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats. Auditor Tom Salmon is mentioned as a Republican opponent. Sanders is popular in the quirky state of Vermont; he won his last election with 65% of the vote.
VIRGINIA
This is an open seat. Senator Jim Webb (D) is retiring and both sides of the aisle have lined up candidates. Former Gov. and DNC chair Tim Kaine is a very strong candidate. However, he is in a primary fight with Courtney Lynch, a marine veteran and Julien Modica, a veterans’ advocate. The Republicans have former Sen. George Allen who lost his last race after an incident in which he used a racial slur to characterize one of his opponent's campaign workers. Also running is Jamie Radtke, the Richmond Tea Party chair. This race will be closely watched and fought by both parties.
WASHINGTON
Two-term incumbent Democrat Maria Cantwell is running for a third term and is well liked. Many have talked about entering the race on the Republican side, but so far only State Senator Michael Baumgartner has declared. Washington leans Democrat and Cantwell is a strong incumbent.
WEST VIRGINIA
Senator Joe Manchin (D) is running for reelection after his 2010 special election victory against John Raese (R). The Republicans may have a primary battle with five term US Rep Shelley Capito facing former Secy of State, Betty Ireland. JAC did not, and will not, support Manchin, who is not pro-choice. Manchin is extremely popular in West Virginia, just as he was when he was governor.
WISCONSIN
This is an OPEN seat. Sen. Herb Kohl (D) announced his retirement and this race became a toss up. Many candidates are mentioned. On the Democratic side US Rep. Tammy Baldwin is the only formally declared candidate. Former Rep Steve Kagen is considering entering the race. Former Governor Tommy Thompson will have a strong primary challenge on the Republican side with ex-Rep and Tea Partier, Mark Neumann.
WYOMING
One-term incumbent Republican John Barrasso was appointed to the Senate in 2007 after the death of Republican Craig L. Thomas and won a special election in 2008 to complete Thomas's term. There are no Democratic challengers.
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